Federal surplus or deficit as a percent of GDP

How much more the federal government spent than it took in over a fiscal year, as a share of the economy. Negative is a deficit; positive is a surplus.

What it measures

The federal surplus or deficit for a fiscal year, divided by GDP. A reading of −5 means the government borrowed the equivalent of 5% of national output that year.

How it is measured

Office of Management and Budget historical tables, annual, back to 1929. The federal fiscal year runs from October to September and is named for the year it ends, so fiscal 2021 began in October 2020.

Reading it over a presidential term

The fiscal-year convention matters for attribution: a President inherits a budget already enacted for the fiscal year that starts eight months into the term. The attribution lag control is the place to express your own view about that. One point per year, so each term has about four.

What it leaves out

Annual and slow to publish. It reports the gap, not what was on either side of it, and the gap moves on its own with the business cycle: tax receipts fall and unemployment payments rise in a recession before any policy changes.

Which direction counts as better?

Deficits are the standard tool for fighting a recession and the standard complaint about long-run policy. Whether a smaller deficit is an achievement or an austerity depends on the year and on the reader.

Chart this series · See it by president · Download the data · The source at FRED